Quantum Computing – It’s on the horizon

In Physics the world of the very small is described by Quantum Mechanics, we are talking at very small scales here, at the level of the individual atom and below. It is a bizarre world and in truth how matter seems to behave at this level is counterintuitive to say the least. This is the wonderful world of Heisenberg and his Uncertainty Principle. For the lay person this essentially it boils down to the fact that it is impossible to measure the exact position and momentum of a particle precisely at the same time. Or to put it another way, the more accurately you measure one property, for example momentum, the less accurately the other property, position, can be known.

Quantum Mechanics also relies heavily on probabilities when describing the physical world. We have all heard of Schrödinger’s cat, this is a though experiment dreamt up by Erwin Schrödinger to simplify and communicate the concept of what a quantum superposition was. Essentially the cat in the box with the vial of poison is considered to be simultaneously both alive and dead while it is unobserved, its death depends on a random subatomic event, radioactive decay. Mathematically the wave function that describes both states is called a quantum superposition, the cat is simultaneously both alive and dead. (For the cynic this begs the question of when exactly quantum superposition ends and reality resolves into one possibility or the other – just lift the lid and find out!) Quantum Mechanics also gives rise to the concept of Quantum Entanglement where the quantum stage of each particle in a group cannot be described independently of the state of the others, even when the particles are separated by a large distance.

If you don’t have a headache yet you soon will! Quantum Computing grew out of the field of Quantum Mechanics. Quantum Computing offers the promise of leveraging the quirks of quantum mechanical states like Superposition and Entanglement to offer vastly different processing potential. In classical computing, a bit can exist in one of 2 states, i.e. it is binary.  In Quantum Computing a Qubit can exist in a linear combination of two states, i.e. quantum superposition. Quantum entanglement in computing is a phenomenon where qubits become so deeply linked that the state of one instantly determines the state of another, regardless of distance, enabling exponential increases in processing power. Entanglement allows a system of n qubits to hold 2ⁿ states simultaneously, theoretically enabling computation of vastly different power. How? In essence in classic computing a bit can exist in one of two states, a qubit theoretically can exist in all computable states simultaneously.

As of today, there is no commercially available quantum computer. Quantum Computing offers nothing more than the promise of leveraging the weird quirks of quantum physics of states like Superposition and Entanglement to offer vastly different processing potential. However, Gartner Consulting has published research that expects advances in Quantum Computing to hit a tipping point in 2029 rendering traditional cryptography unsafe and fully breakable by 2034. Google’s Quantum AI lead predicts commercial and practical quantum applications before 2030.

What are the implications for business and society? Current cryptography staples like the RSA Public Key / Private Key system enable communications and financial transactions to remain private, preventing unauthorized parties from accessing them. This system of obscuring of a message with a key through an algorithm, relies on the algorithm being difficult to reverse. The research indicates that Quantum Computing may be sufficiently powerful to break conventional encryption relatively easily. PQC or Post Quantum Cryptography is a growing field today as organisations try to future proof their infrastructures against what may be around the corner.

The implications of Quantum Computing for society at large are as stark as the worst catastrophising about the impact of AI. No secure communications or secure financial transactions, there is a real possibility that all cyber security would be rendered null and void.  We are already in a world where nothing we see digitally can be trusted thanks to AI, Quantum Computing has the potential to create a world where nothing we store digitally is safe or secure. In the wrong hands or misused the potential for harm is immense. Given how the Tech Bros have behaved over the last decade and put their personal wealth ahead of the sensible use of the systems they created there is nothing to make you confident that should Quantum Computing become a reality that it will be used in a positive sense. Being optimistic Quantum Computing has huge potential upsides in Design, Pharmaceuticals, Medicine, Imagining, Logistics, Grid Management and Materials Science to name but a few application areas.

It is interesting to see that one of the stock market darlings of the AI boom Nvidia are already actively embracing Quantum Computing. Nvidia realise that viable Quantum Computers have the capacity to wipe out its share value overnight, so they have decided to become actively involved in Quantum Computing research, releasing tools like NVQLink, a high-speed, low-latency interconnector that directly links quantum processors with NVIDIA GPU supercomputers. Nvidia have also invested in a and partnered with a number of Quantum Computing start-ups. Rather than risk being overtaken by the next wave of technology Nvidia have taken the sensible step of trying to be coming integral to Quantum Computing.

Cyber Security Standards Organisations are advising Companies and Governments to conduct an inventory their of their current cryptographic usage, prioritize data protection, and transition to quantum-safe algorithms. NIST finalised new standards FIPS 203 /204/205 in 2024, they are advising organisations to begin transitioning to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) immediately to protect against future quantum computer attacks, with a target of 2035 for replacing legacy, vulnerable algorithms. There is a concern that bad actors are already harvesting encrypted data with a view to breaking it over the next few years. Governments and Companies must act to protect long-lived sensitive data immediately.

Quantum Computing has the potential to radically change society, in potentially much more damaging ways than the onset of AI, we all need to sit up and start taking much more notice of developments in the field.